[afnog] Challenges in the African Continent

[SM]

At 20:24 29-03-2009, Mark Tinka wrote:
>Yes, but when compared to the running costs that go into
>operating leased satellite capacity, the long term benefits
>of submarine systems allow operators to significantly reduce
>cost in lieu of the much-increased capacity they are now
>dealing with.

Leasing satellite capacity requires less investment.  It is also as 
an alternative way for some operators to enter the market.

>Economies of scale... for submarine systems, the cost per-
>bit is lower with each increase in bandwidth.

Submarine systems requires a huge investment.  Most operators cannot 
afford that on their own.  That's where governments can step in 
either to cover the capital expenditure or to create an environment 
to attract investors.  The technology provides cheaper and more 
bandwidth.  From a national point of view, it is better to invest in 
that kind of technology.  There is also the question of land-locked 
states.  Having a loop around the continent won't solve their problem 
unless the countries with landing stations adopt a cooperative stance.

>The only ways to address high bandwidth prices are to use a
>more scalable and cost-effective infrastructure medium and
>to increase competition (both at the ISP and cable system
>level).

Agreed.

>Yes, but local content can also be built in English, or
>French. If there is demand for other native languages,
>content in those languages will emerge.

The language is one of the determinants in the content push.  Take 
China for example.  It's a market in itself because of that (and some 
other factors).  We had an Internet where English was the primary 
language.  We now have several commodities based around the 
Internet.  These commodities favor traffic concentration.  Local 
content is no match against that except if it's in other native 
languages.  There are still some services that can emerge from the region.

>But what we need to address now is; how do I get a reliable
>local loop to my ISP? In preparation for the TEAMS, SEACOM
>and EASSy cable systems, a number of countries are beefing
>up national infrastructure, but this will take a while as
>there's lots of ground to cover. Dial-up and wireless
>solutions will continue to be more prevalent in the interim.

Cable systems won't make a difference without the national 
infrastructure to support them.  It is not economical to provide fast 
nation-wide access all at once.  We will still see wireless solutions 
as they can be used to bridge the gaps in the infrastructure and to 
side-step the last mile issue.  I'm not writing off dial-up.  It's 
still an effective way to get to the ISP.

>I'm not sure we can say the same for most countries in the
>region.

Agreed.  I was generalizing.

>But regulation in some countries prevents ISP's from
>building out their own infrastructure. South Africa just
>deregulated, as Graham mentioned, so as long as an ISP has
>the right license, they can build out. Other countries too.

Yes.  It's up the each country to decide whether it wants to keep 
these artificial barriers.  As long as such policies are in place, 
there won't be the competitive environment that can bring down the 
cost of bandwidth.

>Yes, but right now, Africa has to sort out a fundamental
>infrastructure problem. Dilapidated copper, non-existent
>fibre, old switching equipment, lack of coverage, expensive
>satellite bandwidth, outdated regulatory regimes, political
>interference, e.t.c., all need to be addressed before Jane
>and Jon can start to feel creative.

With a list like that, we could pack up before we even get 
started.  If the Jon and Jane on this list wait for all these 
problems to be addressed before getting creative, they will be 
subject to a wider technological disadvantage.

>Which is what has been happening. However, we need to
>encourage more attention toward local hosting, which is why
>we've been talking about exchange points at various fora for
>many years now, and a number of folk have been involved in
>helping establish the same in several African markets.

Agreed.

>The problems are well-understood. The suggestions have been
>flowing in.
>
>The fixes require money and such resources. That's as far as
>I can go :-).

And some political will. :-)

>Regulation will work if there is dialogue between the
>regulator and the industry. A lot of regulators are
>frustrating. A lot of regulators are frustrated.

Is the national regulator listening to the operator?  I know that 
some are.  If there isn't dialogue with the regulator, get the users 
to talk to them. :-)

>Of course, we don't want the regulator to be too liberal
>that coffee shops are now classified as operators simply
>because they can hook-up an ADSL modem to a wi-fi access
>point, but they need to understand how to create a climate
>where competition is healthy, innovation is rife and Jane
>and Jon end-users are taken care of.

People have to discuss about policies that can create a climate for 
innovation and competition.  And that's not something to be done on a 
random blog as the regulator may not be reading it.

>Some may see this is case of "hen, where's egg?"

The egg is "show me the money".

>But I think that the infrastructure should come first. How
>else do you expect to get customers if they have no options
>as to how to connect to the ISP?

Let's look at this differently.  Can the existing infrastructure be 
used for dial-up access?  If the answer is yes, then you have an 
option to connect to the ISP.  As usage grows, the ISP has an 
incentive to look into how to provide faster access.  If they don't 
do that, some other ISP will do it.  You mentioned the TEAMS, SEACOM 
and EASSy cable systems.  If the ISP wants to be part of that, they 
have to see about how to sell the bandwidth.  Either the ISP takes 
steps for the infrastructure to be in place before the cable systems 
are operational or else the investor end up paying for the 
expenditure without the additional revenue.

>We already have examples of folks traveling miles to use a
>phone or send an e-mail. The market is there.

There will be a smart operator sees that as an opportunity and create 
what I would call an African solution.  That operator will likely be 
somebody close to the community they want to reach.  They could 
re-purpose existing technologies to create cheap and effective solutions.

>The fast growth in mobile networks in Africa means even the
>very slow GPRS offers a little help in sending an e-mail or
>an IM. But we need more...

It's interesting to see how fast mobile networks are growing in 
Africa.  A mobile phone is more than a phone nowadays.  Internet 
access through mobile networks will be more than messaging.  Think of 
the localized content that can be provided.  People will also expect 
to reach their favorite sites.  That's another outlet to sell cable 
capacity to.

I oversimplified a lot in my messages.  The generalizations are not 
applicable to every country.  It's not even an outline of a strategy 
to address the questions which Mark, Phil and Graham raised.

Regards,
-sm